The future of home video gaming is unclear.  Analysts used to think the game console industry cycle was around 5 years.  That’s changing.  Around 5 to 10 years is more like it with console technologies ahead of their time, higher price points, and a downturn in the world economy people aren’t reaching as deep into their pockets as predicted.  It is still a booming industry but growth has rapidly slowed.  What will succeed this generation (Generation 7) of consoles and home computers?  The PS4?  Xbox720?  The WiiToo?  OnLive microconsole?  I made up WiiToo.  It’s catchy isn’t it?  WiiToo?  Go ahead Nintendo take my name idea that’s cool.  Just let me have a free console.  That’s all I ask, no royalties please.  Back on point.  Analysts predict no new console technology to hit the store shelves until 2012 or 2013 if at all.  What do they mean, “if at all”?  Internet technology and speed may possibly make home hardware obsolete.  What?  I’ll no longer need a disc or drive?  Yeah, its going that way and in 5 more years we all may very well be comfortable with just downloads and streaming.  No more running out to the local Gamestop.

Wedbush Morgan Video Gaming analyst Michael Pachter who is a frequent guest on GameTrailers.com show “The Bonus Round” is raising some alarm among investors and gamers.  He’s saying this could be the last generation of home consoles.

“We note that video game software sales typically peak in the year prior to the introduction of a new generation console,as many consumers begin to slow purchases in anticipation of purchasing a new console the next year. We do not expect a “new” console in 2010 (other than the long-rumored high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology). We do not expect the “next” generation to begin before 2013, if at all.”

Talk of a PS4 is almost nonexistent although it is known to be on Sony’s drawing boards.  Sony is planning on the current generation PS3 to eventually succeed and even surpass its competitors while continuing to make money on a nearly 10 year old PS2.  Great!  Where’s my PS3 slim?  Anyone, anyone?  Sony has run into their share of problems with sales and company restructuring.  I believe they will do well and could even surpass sales of the current Xbox360 if a price drop along with a stellar round of exclusive games are implemented.  Not to mention continued development of their online services to give Xbox Live a run for its money.  It could happen, but a plan like this could take some time.  Maybe as long as 2012 before the PS3 could potentially pull ahead of the competition all while the new PS4 hits store shelves with an updated cell processor and blue-ray player.  Hopefully Sony will support backwards compatibility with future software updates of the PS3 console as the PS2 is eventually phased out.  I love the fact that the PS3 can be purchased with a 160GB hard drive and can be easily replaced with a larger 2.5″ laptop drive if needed.  There are plenty of tutorials on the internet to increase capacity for the PS3.  Sony also seems to be sticking to a 10 year cycle for each machine while releasing new technology every 5 years to keep up with the competition.  You can see that giving yourself 10 year period for success instead of only 5 could be a better plan for the marketing department.  Smart?  We will see.   The PS2 is almost irrelevant during this generation after 10 years although it won Generation 6′s console wars.  Nowadays during generation 7 the PS3 is around 9 million units behind the Xbox360, and 28 million units behind the Nintendo Wii in overall sales.  Maybe Sony can make up sales for losing  badly out of the starting gate with a 10 year plan.  Sony’s PSP had also undergone many hardware and software upgrades.  Nothing ground breaking, but at least in the right direction.  The handheld has been largely ignored by Sony and developers and since the console was not very ergonomic and had a “half baked” operating system suseptable to hackers.  Also, its mothership console was in trouble contributing to slow software development.  Now rumors are afoot that Sony is releasing a completely new PSP.  Not just another slight hardware upgrade, but a completely new system.  We may see something at this years E3 in June 09 so stay tuned.

Gamers and analysts do speculate a bit more about the next console from Microsoft.  I suspect the Xbox360 was named so due to its 3 internal processors.  The Xbox360 did not include a HD-DVD drive which would have been the logical choice to combat the Sony Blue-Ray.  In hindsight Microsoft made a smart move with the standard DVD drive foregoing higher costs of a more expensive input device with greater storage capacity.  The Xbox360 was as highly anticipated as Microsoft’s first entry into the console gaming market.  Although one entire console iteration behind the Playstation, Microsoft’s second console is a sales success.  The Xbox360 was released a full year ahead of the PS3 to its detriment though.  What do I mean.  The Red Ring of Death of course.  The console design is great, however the rush to release the console led to some manufacturing defects costing Microsoft dearly with replacements and retooling of its manufacturing methods.  No one knows what the name will be for the next Xbox.  The Xbox720,  the Xbox Next, Xbox XYZ?  We can expect the next Playstation to be called “PS4″, but who knows with the Xbox.   Of course we can all expect more processors, an updated and powerful graphics card along with increased memory and motion sensing wireless controls with the next version.  What about storage and input medium?  A new low cost technology is already developed called Holographic storage.  This new more cost effective storage medium can out-mode the current blockade of Blue-Ray discs from Sony.  The holographic storage medium can easily equal the same storage capacity of 100 DVD discs.  General Electric (GE) reserch labs in Niskayuna, N.Y., north of Albany have increase the reflective strength of their holographic drives by as much as 200% allowing them to read even Blue-Ray dics!  A breakthrough for the mass market!  The technology has been around for a long time and isn’t a proprietary storage format for Microsoft, Nintendo, or Sony.  Any or all companies can benefit from holographic disc storage.  The best thing about the technology is it’s low cost to produce.  A welcome phrase to any company who designs hardware, especially game machines.  As of now the light patterns produced by the technology is expensive and is used only by medical and research devices.  By 2011 or 2012 the storage device could cost significantly less to produce and can be easily made in mass for commercial purposes.

1 Holodisc = 100 DVDs

Nintendo.  Ah, Nintendo.  One of the most beloved console manufacturers on the planet.  A giant in the home and handheld markets.  Yes, we all agree they do it right.  Nintendo ignores the ”console wars” and goes on their own way with unbridled enthusiasm.  They have a host market IP’s and brand recognition that crosses all boundaries.  Smart people?  You’re damn right!  Nintendo’s last console, the Game Cube was not a success.  The cube was a neat idea with a great controller, but Nintendo began to realize it was on the wrong track competing with hardware goliath Sony and software giant Microsoft.  They had to blaze their own path or face total defeat.  Nintendo fans who grew up with the company were getting nervous.  Nintendo had to totally revamped its strategy.  Wow, did they ever!  The Nintendo Wii and DS came down from above upon the industry with a roar during this generation of gaming.  Nintendo practically steam rolled the competition with lower costs, innovation, and marketing acumen.  Now they lead the pack, and the industry with sales in the home and handheld markets.  Shortly to be announced will be the Wii HD.  As previously mentioned by analysts this may the worlds last home game console ever sold.  Wii HD is expected to be an updated version of the Wii with a little more high definition horsepower and a few other improvements for the standard Wii.  Why the last console ever developed on the planet?  First, investors are infusing most of their money in current consoles resisting a new generation.  They see rising development costs associated with “refreshing” software for future systems.  Secondly, advanced internet technologies are beginning to take hold, decreasing the need for advanced home hardware.

MP 3′s  have supplanted the CD, downloadable content is slowly replacing DVD’s, gaming PC’s and consoles are next on the hit list.  People are used to having physical hardware and software at home.  That comes at some cost and takes up space.  What if there were a way to save money and space at home?  ”Cloud computing” is proven and the technology is here now.  Server farms, which are basically giant rooms filled with computer hardware linked to your home are springing up all over the country, gearing up to stream the next generation of games right to you.  One of the most noted cloud computing companies to date is OnLive.  OnLive splashed onto the scene at this years Game Developers Conference GDC 09 in San Fransico like a fat kid doing the cannon ball into the toddler pool.  Everyone got wet.  PC trials are beginning this Summer and microconsoles for home use should be on the market by this holiday season.  Low cost of entry for the consumer is key and they know it.  All you need is any ole’ PC or low cost microconsole and a good internet connection and your in business.  Imagine Crysis in 720P on my 42″ HDTV and surround sound cranked?  Believe it or not that game has been tested and works great!

I’m stoked!

-dude